T

There are fewer and fewer Ukrainians. Why lowering the mobilization age makes no sense

The generation of young people is less numerous than the generation of middle-aged people due to low birth rates in the first years of independence. Therefore, reducing the mobilization age cannot significantly increase the reserve.

Читати українською

This is stated in the data project "Mobilization Reserve" by Texty.org.ua, in which we investigated how many men can still be mobilized.

We created a demographic pyramid of the population. On the right are women, on the left are men. This type of graph is called a pyramid because this way of representing the population of different ages and genders was invented in the days when there were more children at the bottom than all the others.

Demographic forecast of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine for 2023. Excluding the war, made in 2020, a negative scenario
Demographic forecast of the Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine for 2023. Excluding the war, made in 2020, a negative scenario

The population structure shows that the generation of young people is less numerous than the generation of middle-aged people. By the way, that is why there are so many men aged 35-45 at the front now-they make up the largest share of the pyramid.

The war has very serious demographic consequences for Ukraine. The number of future generations depends on the number of young people and their willingness to build families. We have very few people aged 25-35 (and at this age people mostly become parents). Obviously, they will not be able to give birth to as many children as numerous generations born in the 1980s, even if the pre-war birth rate is maintained. This unavoidable effect is compounded by the war. That is, there are few people who can have children, and they have serious obstacles and warnings against having children.

mobilization graph eng russo-ukrainian war

Знак гривні
Знак гривні