Click on bars with name of candidate to add or remove corresponding charts.
We took all reliable polls and plotted aggregated voter's intentions on interactive chart.
The values are percentage among
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Last updated: March 28, 2019
Click on bars with name of candidate to add or remove corresponding charts.
Click on bars with name of candidate to add or remove corresponding charts.
Updated 01.04.2019 Final results of our "poll of polls" model (as of 2019-03-28, third option for chart ) were in line with results of National exit-poll for election day, 2019-03-31
Each line on chart is an evolution of median for support rate for some candidate. We calculated it with a help of probabilistic (bayesian) model.
Take into account that support level for some candidate in form of single number is an oversimplification. We've got a whole distribution for level of support, so besides median you should look to entire range of values for specific date.
Pay an attention to the band of color around each line ― this is the range of values for level of support for specific candidate. With a big probability (0.95), the level of support is within such band.
Please, remember: this is NOT an election forecast! This is just aggregated levels of support for candidates based on data from different polls.
The polls used in our model are here. The sheet named "type1" is for percentage among all voters, "type2" is percentage among voters who are going to vote, "type3" is among voters who are going to vote & determined about candidate.